Phase 13 // Course Syllabus Chapter
Key Metrics — Win Rate, R:R, Expectancy & Profit Factor Explained.
Part of our masterclass path. We systematically cover risk, logic, and mechanics to build professional edge.
Floor Tier Access 25 min read / 15 min video
01_Curriculum_Brief
What is covered in this chapter
Deconstructing Strategy Metrics
Win rate is the metric retail traders focus on. Expectancy is the metric professionals trade. You can have a 30% win rate and be highly profitable, or a 90% win rate and go broke.
The Professional Metrics
- Expectancy: The average dollar amount you expect to win or lose per trade. Formula: (Win Rate * Average Win Size) - (Loss Rate * Average Loss Size). A positive expectancy is the definition of edge.
- Profit Factor: The ratio of gross profits to gross losses. A profit factor above 1.5 is strong.
- MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion): Tracks how deep into drawdown a trade goes before returning to profit. Essential for optimizing stop-loss placement.
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Phase 13 Chapters
01What Backtesting Actually Tells You — and What It Lies About02Manual Backtesting Method — The Right Way to Do It in TradingView03Defining Your Strategy Rules With Zero Ambiguity04Sample Size — How Many Trades Before Your Data Means Something05Key Metrics — Win Rate, R:R, Expectancy & Profit Factor Explained06Forward Testing and Walk-Forward Analysis07Monte Carlo Simulation — Stress-Testing Your Strategy Against Randomness08Using the Drawdown AI Backtester Tool — Live Walkthrough